- Census 2010 (Editorial Cartoonists)
- Jobs Were Supposed To Grow... But ADP's Employment Report Shows A Shock Drop (Business Insider)
- The flippers are back, baby!! (Bloomberg)
- "Once the market becomes overvalued, further gains are ultimately paid for by a period of sorry returns later" (Hussman)
- Buffett's Annual Meeting Means Flights to Omaha Cost More Than Paris (Bloomberg)
- How to Sell Your Business During the Recession - It's Not Impossible (Open)
- Does Your Passion Match Your Aspiration? (Bloomberg)
- Super Burgers (Bloomberg)
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Census 2010
"Irrational Exuberance" In Treasuries? Maybe.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.” “I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. ...Historically, there has been “a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow,” he said. “That’s narrowing. And I’m finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that.”
Clearly, the former head of the Fed is worried that long-term rates are too low and that they will likely rise in the future (bond prices will fall). To me this sounds an awful lot like his concern for stock prices being too high back in 1996.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Alan Greenspan Taunts the Bond Bull
- Alan Greenspan Taunts The Bond Bull (Bloomberg)
- Economists Who Say “Ni!” (Krugman)
- 12 things you should NOT buy in 2010 (Daily News)
- Apple is now bigger than Berkshire, GE, Proctor & Gamble, J&J, Google and JPMorgan Chase (Reformed Broker)
- The Real Cost of Apple Products (SMG)
- Not Quite "the Next Warren Buffett" (Business Week)
Financial Stocks Really Aren't As Strong As They Seem
Vince Neil Plans to Melt Warren Buffett's Face Off
Geico recently released an internal promotional video in which owner, Warren Buffett, makes a cameo appearance. From the looks of things, Warren has gone full hardcore heavy metal, ala Axl Rose:
Well, it turns out that another of Warren's companies is going to have a little hardcore competition. Motley Crue lead singer, Vince Neil, just announced that he intends to create a NetJets of his own... but his jets will be nothing less than the Whiskey a Go Go of the skies.
It sounds like Neil intends the company to be some sort of Harley Davidson, Jack Daniels and Les Paul meet Hooters Air. Sounds interesting, no? Don't be surprised, then, if the New Warren Buffett abandons his stuffy NetJets for the kick-ass, melt-your-face-off, skysolos of Vince Neil Aviation the next time he ventures out of Omaha.
Monday, March 29, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Obama Slays the Dragon
- Obama Slays the Healthcare Dragon (Editorial Cartoonists)
- AT&T Plans $1 Billion Charge Related to Increased Costs from Healthcare Reform (WSJ)
- Actively Managed Mutual Funds Are Obsolete (Forbes)
- The 15 Money Rules Parents Should Teach Their Kids (WSJ)
- Uncle Sam Makes $8 Profit on Citi Bailout (Washington Post)
- Terrorists Could Hide Bombs in Breast Implants (Manolith)
- Make Your Disposable Razor Blade Last For 20 Months (Consumerist)
Friday, March 26, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Smile
- Stocks React to Marijuana Legalization on California Ballot (Editorial Cartoonists)
- Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again (Bloomberg)
- Don't you know that you are a shooting star? (StockCharts)
- ObamaCare Already Jacking Up Health-Insurance Costs For Businesses -- So They're Cutting Benefits (Business Insider)
- Death toll blamed on Toyotas' sudden acceleration tops 100 (LA Times)
- Shia LaPump (Reformed Broker)
- Oregon men’s golf team is ranked No. 1 in the country (Bulletin)
- Smile your way to a long life (LA Times)
"Nature By Numbers" - The Fibonacci Sequence in Natural Systems
The video below is a mesmerizing look at the Fibonacci sequence and its prevalence in natural systems. Viewing the financial markets as natural systems has inspired traders to apply the sequence to asset prices for many years. Fibonacci fans, traders or not, will certainly appreciate this:
If you liked this video see "The Fibonacci in Lateralus."
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Bend Home Prices Finally Return to Fair Value
What Does the Dollar Rally Mean?
The Ephemeral Economic Recovery
Never before have new home sales gone on to make a new cycle low after a recession ends — until now. In fact, in practically every other cycle, housing is the first sector to bottom and lead the economy out of the downturn. This time around, it has been the federal government — bailouts and repeated stimulus — and a production bounce as inventories get realigned with a sales environment that may be weak but never went into the abyss. That said, without the traditional credit-sensitive sectors leading the economy into the upturn, as has traditionally been the case, then it is hard to believe we are going to see a sustainable recovery.
These are valid points that the stock market is currently ignoring. I continue to believe this "recovery" is nothing more than an economic "dead cat bounce" amidst a larger "balance sheet recession."
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "Take That, Insurance Companies"
Take That, Insurance Companies (Bokbluster)
Whoops, Social Security Just Went Bust (Business Insider)
Americans Saying 'No' to Toyota After Recalls as Ford Leads Opinion Survey (Bloomberg)
Uh-Oh: Facebook Linked To Rise In Syphilis (Geekologie)
Howie Hubler’s second act: Loan Value Group is a very interesting idea. (Felix)
Who's the BSD buying Google? (Bespoke)
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Could It Be That Americans "Despise" Wall Street For Good Reason?
Higher fees erode returns over time. A private banking client with $10 million invested, for example, who earns annual returns of 7 percent a year and pays 2.3 percent in fees, will hand $3.4 million to his bankers over the course of a decade. With fees of 0.9 percent, that client would pay $1.3 million...
“Most wealth managers and banks have a stumping conflict of interest because their riskier products earn them more fees,” says Drake, who worked at London-based Kleinwort Benson and Granville Plc for more than 20 years. “If your adviser is getting three times more for hedge funds and private equity than government bonds, you’re asking for trouble.”...
The financial crisis exposed “unsound incentive structures” that reward private bankers for pursuing their employers’ interests rather than those of their clients, wealth management consultants Ole Heggtveit and David Clarksonwrote in a report published in December by Oliver Wyman, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos....
Potential conflicts include encouraging clients to buy higher-margin assets rather than lower-risk alternatives, pushing the bank’s own products and third-party funds that pay commissions to the wealth manager as opposed to those that minimize costs, and promoting frequent trading over buy-and-hold strategies, according to the report titled, “Trust Me, I’m Your Private Banker.”
Bankers, brokers and insurance salespeople regularly do put their own interests ahead of their clients' for one reason: unchecked greed. Most people get into the finance industry to make money. The first thing they realize is the easiest way to do so is to "pump" their clients. The second thing they realize is that there's nothing stopping them.
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: BFD
SEC Employees Had Their Hands Full During the Financial Crisis But Not With Enforcement Cases (Gawker)
13 states are suing the federal government claiming the landmark health care overhaul is unconstitutional (OPB)
Rich Clients Pumped for Fees in Private Banking's `Conflict of Interest' (Bloomberg)
Wall Street Despised by Americans in Poll Showing Majority Want Regulation (Bloomberg)
Bend 6th in the nation for 'under water' mortgages (KTVZ)
New home sales drop 2.2% in Feb. to new all-time low (LA Times)
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Google Now Wants To Be The Next Salomon Brothers
Now, it seems, Google is focusing squarely on growing this cash pile in true Salomon Brothers fashion. Clusterstock reports:
Google is hiring traders for its new bond trading platform, according to published advertisements on its job site. Currently, roles include trader of foreign government bonds, portfolio analyst for Google's U.S. government bond portfolio, and a portfolio analyst for agency mortgage-backed securities. All of the roles are at Google's Mountain View facility. A source who interviewed for one of the positions said that this was a means for Google (GOOG) to make use of its large cash reserves. Google has long discussed using its access to massive amounts of data tobuild a hedge fund.
This is a very worrisome trend that the company is following. Expanding into new lines of business that aren't anywhere near the company's core competencies is a sign of managerial hubris that should put shareholders on high alert.
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "I Hate Manure"
Monday, March 22, 2010
Wall Street Is Nothing More Than "A Really Elegant Form of Theft"
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "Sisyphus Accomplished"
Is This the Scariest Chart Of All Time? (Clusterstock)
USAA: The best bank in the US (banksimple)
Great parody video of junior Wall Street analysts (BroBible)
Here's Proof That Your "Diversified" Portfolio Is a Joke (Clusterstock)
America's Horrible Healthcare ROI
Great chart here from Barry Ritholtz. Not only do we spend twice as much as the average industrialized nation, we have the lowest life expectancy:
Saturday, March 20, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Health Care and the Potentially Huge Decline Ahead for Stocks
Analysts are uniformly uber-bullish (Pragmatic Capitalist)
Sign Up For A Federal Mortgage Assistance And Your Credit Score Drops 100 Points (Clusterstock)
The Ridiculous Lawsuit One Man Filed Against Goldman Sachs For Giving Him Good Advice (Clusterstock)
CNN-Money predicts that Bend will see one of the largest real estate price gains in the US this year (KTVZ)
Stephen Lynch (D-Mass): Why I Wasn't Convinced on Obamacare (Mother Jones)
David Tice Says Potential Stock Market Decline Is 'Huge' (Bloomberg)
Friday, March 19, 2010
DeMark Indicator Suggests the Stock Market Is Putting In a Top Right Here, Right Now
The Only Two Charts You Need to See to Understand the Current Economy
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: China's Currency and the Next Real Estate Debacle
The honeymoon is officially over for Obama (Bloomberg)
Greenspan: I Like Big Bubbles And I Cannot Lie (LOLFed)
Is The United States Headed For A Commercial Real Estate Crash Of Unprecedented Magnitude? (The Economic Collapse)
Proof That Fred Schwed Was Right (70 Years Later)
In the latest issue of The Felder Report, I wrote, "The Wall Street Journal reports that companies like Morgan Stanley Smith Barney paid bonuses to 'top producers' (aka, commission generators) of over ten million dollars or more last year. Undoubtedly, there are many new orders for yachts being placed by brokers in 2010," in a reference to Fred Schwed's classic Wall Street takedown "Where Are the Customer's Yachts?"
Well it seems I was more prescient than even I imagined. Clusterstock reports today that yacht sales are running fully 50% higher than last year:
Brokers must be celebrating not only the huge bonuses they got last year but also the fact that Congress has decided to let them continue to shun fiduciary duty.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Gunning Down the Bears
The Rally Narrows
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Bernie Madoff Gets Chuck Norrised
Google TV is Coming to a Living Room Near You (Mashable)
Why Financial Plans Are Worthless (NY Times)
Proof That Risk Taking Is Back With A Vengeance (Business Insider)
Senator Corker Says He Made A Specific "Hotel California" Provision In Dodd's New Bill For Goldman Sachs (Clusterstock)
Environmentally Friendly Homes Are Shunned by Lenders (WSJ)
Leading Indicators Have Smallest Gain in Year in Sign of Slower Expansion (Bloomberg)
Chuck Norris trades Repo 105 transactions with the Federal Reserve, except Chuck only pays 104, and his U.S. auditors have signed off on them as true sales. (Bloomberg)
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Chris Dodd Will Have His Hands Full With United Jonco International
The Daily Show on the causes of the financial crisis and resulting reform package now being championed by Chris Dodd:
A Dark CRE Cloud Hangs Over CACB
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
The Other Bill Gross and the Power of Solar Thermal Energy
In the following video Bill Gross (not Pimco's bond king; Idealab's CEO) talks about the fascinating potential of solar thermal energy which is vastly different than photovoltaics, the more popular and prevalent form of solar energy used today. Even if you're not interested solar the video is worth watching simply for the engaging discussion of the engineering and business challenges Gross and eSolar are solving:
Monday, March 15, 2010
Coffee a Screaming Buy After Daylight Savings Time Begins
Beware the Ides of March
...Many important recent tops have often come in the month of March.
•August 1999 to March 2000 peak — followed by market/internet collapse into October 2002
•September 2001 to March 2002 peak — followed by a 35% decline into October 2002 (interesting that the SPX is trading EXACTLY at that March 2002 peak again)
•March 2003 to March 2004 peak — followed by a 9% decline into the August 2004 low (again, the SPX is trading EXACTLY at that March 2004 peak)
•August 2004 to March 2005 peak — followed by an 8% decline into April 2005 (low for the year)
•March 2009 to March 2010 peak?
Additional trading patterns to watch for (this is from our friend Mary Ann Bartels at Merrill).
•Four-year cycle low scheduled to bottom between July-October 2010
•Years ending in ‘0’ are the most negative of all decennial years (average 6.9% annual loss) with an intra-year correction of 22%
•Mid-term election years since 1930 average a 20% intra-year decline (peaks around March and bottoms around September)
•The prior four mid-term election years ending in ‘0’ (’30, ’50, ’70, ’90) averaged intra-year corrections of 26%
So far this year, the above trading patterns are aligning beautifully. Remember, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes!
Beware Unintended Stock Market Acceleration
Indeed, stocks over the past few weeks have been running like James Sikes' Prius:
Friday, March 12, 2010
Is Fear About to Make a Comeback?
Where Is the Economy's Brakeman?
I know - the winter games are over and, except for the epic gold medal hockey game, already forgotten. Still, the cartoon makes a very good point: we needed a brakeman back during the twin bubbles and we need one again today.
The Widening Gap Between Wall Street and Main Street
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 72.5 from February’s final reading of 73.6. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the gauge would increase to 74, according to the median estimate...
The index of expectations six months from now, which projects the direction of consumer spending, declined to 67.2, the lowest level since November, from 68.4 last month.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Olympic Hockey and Synchronized Peeing
Amazing chart here showing the residents of Edmonton using their toilets in concert during the gold medal game:
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
San Diego Man Says Prius Accelerated Out of Control
Yesterday was the day Toyota was to "take the gloves off and respond to their critics." But the company's media thunder was stolen by a San Diego man who was taken for a very scary ride in his Prius:
Monday, March 08, 2010
John Hussman: Why It's "Margin of Safety" Time
A deleveraging cycle is much like a secular bear market in that the market experiences a great deal of volatility, but tends to establish a sequence of troughs, each at lower levels of valuation (even if not at lower absolute prices). In that environment, there is significant risk of abrupt spikes in risk aversion (which implies abrupt price spikes to the downside), so you can't trade with "hot" valuation or market action criteria. It should be no surprise that Graham and Dodd wrote Security Analysis following the post-credit crisis period of the 1920's and 1930's. If there's one lesson from those environments, it is that valuations and the idea of a "margin of safety" takes precedence over all other considerations.
Here's to one mutual fund manager that doesn't think "cash is trash."
Cash Is Trash Again For Mutual Fund Managers
Equity mutual funds are burning through cash at the fastest rate in 18 years, leaving them with the smallest reserves since 2007 in a sign that gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slow.via bloomberg.com
Cash dropped to 3.6 percent of assets from 5.7 percent in January 2009, leaving managers with $172 billion in the quickest decrease since 1991, Investment Company Institute data show. The last time stock managers held such a small proportion was September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The last time before that was never (via sentimentrader.com). And a year ago, at the bottom, funds held nearly twice as much cash as they do today. So I think it's safe to say this is a fairly accurate contrarian indicator.
Disclosure: long SDS
Sunday, March 07, 2010
Friday, March 05, 2010
Tale of the Tape: Small Caps v Financials
Okay, Maybe His Track Record Has Something to Do With It
A couple of days ago I posited that the reason Warren Buffett is the most respected CEO in the world is that he never passes the buck. I guess his impressive track record might also have something to do with it:
Many investors can only look on with envy when Warren Buffett says his investors have seen 20% annualized gains over the past 45 years—even the best mutual funds pale by comparison.
Only two funds are even on the horizon: Fidelity Magellan Fund, which has returned 16.3% a year during Mr. Buffett's chairmanship of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and Templeton Growth Fund, up 13.4% a year on average, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc.
Berkshire's Class A shares have delivered returns of 22% a year since 1965, based on market price, though Mr. Buffett prefers to judge gains according to book value, which stand at 20.3%.
Using Berkshire's market-price gains for fairer comparison with mutual funds, $10,000 invested with Mr. Buffett on Oct. 1 1964—equivalent to about $60,000 in today's dollars—would now be worth about $80 million. The same amount in Fidelity's fund would have grown to about $9.1 million, while Templeton Growth investors would now have roughly $2.9 million.
The returns covered the 45 years through the end of 2009. During that period the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 9.3% on an annualized basis—$10,000 would have grown to nearly $560,000. There were 145 mutual funds at the start of 1965.





























