Wednesday, March 31, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Census 2010


  • Census 2010 (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • Jobs Were Supposed To Grow... But ADP's Employment Report Shows A Shock Drop (Business Insider)
  • The flippers are back, baby!! (Bloomberg)
  • "Once the market becomes overvalued, further gains are ultimately paid for by a period of sorry returns later" (Hussman)
  • Buffett's Annual Meeting Means Flights to Omaha Cost More Than Paris (Bloomberg)
  • How to Sell Your Business During the Recession - It's Not Impossible (Open)
  • Does Your Passion Match Your Aspiration? (Bloomberg)
  • Super Burgers (Bloomberg)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

"Irrational Exuberance" In Treasuries? Maybe.

Alan Greenspan delivered his now infamous "irrational exuberance" speech on December 5th, 1996, expressing his concern that stocks were overvalued. This was big news at the time because it was a clear departure from his normal reticence in regards to the financial markets, especially asset prices.

Greenspan's concerns were eventually validated but not before stocks posted three of the best return years in history. Ultimately, he was right but painfully early.
Today Sir Alan is lamenting an "irrational exuberance" in a different asset class. Bloomberg reports:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.” “I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. ...Historically, there has been “a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow,” he said. “That’s narrowing. And I’m finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that.”

Clearly, the former head of the Fed is worried that long-term rates are too low and that they will likely rise in the future (bond prices will fall). To me this sounds an awful lot like his concern for stock prices being too high back in 1996. 
He may be proved right again but, if history is to rhyme, there is a very real possibility we will see an epic blowoff in long-term Treasury bonds just like the late 1990's stock market blowoff before it's all said and done.

Disclosure: Long TLT

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Alan Greenspan Taunts the Bond Bull


  • Alan Greenspan Taunts The Bond Bull (Bloomberg)
  • Economists Who Say “Ni!” (Krugman)
  • 12 things you should NOT buy in 2010 (Daily News)
  • Apple is now bigger than Berkshire, GE, Proctor & Gamble, J&J, Google and JPMorgan Chase (Reformed Broker)
  • The Real Cost of Apple Products (SMG)
  • Not Quite "the Next Warren Buffett" (Business Week)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Financial Stocks Really Aren't As Strong As They Seem

The 13% stock market rally since early February has been led by a blistering 20% rally in the financial sector during that time as evidenced by the XLF:


The push this month to new highs has led the overall stock market's rise to new highs since the last, epic bear market (arguably) came to its conclusion in early March.

What I find interesting is that Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan make up nearly a third of this popular ETF and the broader NYSE Financial Index has not performed nearly as well. In fact, while XLF pushed to new highs, its more diversified cousin failed to surmount its high of last October.


This means that the breadth of the rally is faltering as fewer stocks are pushing the indexes higher at this point. This key divergence between two indexes of the same sector suggests the current rally may be getting long in the tooth.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Vince Neil Plans to Melt Warren Buffett's Face Off

Geico recently released an internal promotional video in which owner, Warren Buffett, makes a cameo appearance. From the looks of things, Warren has gone full hardcore heavy metal, ala Axl Rose:

Well, it turns out that another of Warren's companies is going to have a little hardcore competition. Motley Crue lead singer, Vince Neil, just announced that he intends to create a NetJets of his own... but his jets will be nothing less than the Whiskey a Go Go of the skies.

It sounds like Neil intends the company to be some sort of Harley Davidson, Jack Daniels and Les Paul meet Hooters Air. Sounds interesting, no? Don't be surprised, then, if the New Warren Buffett abandons his stuffy NetJets for the kick-ass, melt-your-face-off, skysolos of Vince Neil Aviation the next time he ventures out of Omaha.

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Monday, March 29, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Obama Slays the Dragon

x

  • Obama Slays the Healthcare Dragon (Editorial Cartoonists
  • AT&T Plans $1 Billion Charge Related to Increased Costs from Healthcare Reform (WSJ)
  • Actively Managed Mutual Funds Are Obsolete (Forbes)
  • The 15 Money Rules Parents Should Teach Their Kids (WSJ)
  • Uncle Sam Makes $8 Profit on Citi Bailout (Washington Post)
  • Terrorists Could Hide Bombs in Breast Implants (Manolith)
  • Make Your Disposable Razor Blade Last For 20 Months (Consumerist)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Friday, March 26, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Smile

  • Stocks React to Marijuana Legalization on California Ballot (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again (Bloomberg)
  • Don't you know that you are a shooting star? (StockCharts)
  • ObamaCare Already Jacking Up Health-Insurance Costs For Businesses -- So They're Cutting Benefits (Business Insider)
  • Death toll blamed on Toyotas' sudden acceleration tops 100 (LA Times)
  • Shia LaPump (Reformed Broker)
  • Oregon men’s golf team is ranked No. 1 in the country (Bulletin)
  • Smile your way to a long life (LA Times)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

"Nature By Numbers" - The Fibonacci Sequence in Natural Systems

The video below is a mesmerizing look at the Fibonacci sequence and its prevalence in natural systems. Viewing the financial markets as natural systems has inspired traders to apply the sequence to asset prices for many years. Fibonacci fans, traders or not, will certainly appreciate this:

If you liked this video see "The Fibonacci in Lateralus."

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Bend Home Prices Finally Return to Fair Value


IHS Global Insight recently released their numbers on home prices valuations. As the chart above shows, as of 12/31/09 Bend home prices are pretty much fairly valued. 
It's truly amazing to consider just how big the local bubble was. It's taken about a 50% decline just to bring prices back to normalcy.
Make no mistake, however, this massive decline has only brought prices back to fair value. They are not yet undervalued. But given a bit more time, they may still get there.

What Does the Dollar Rally Mean?


The dollar has rallied pretty hard over the past few days clearly surmounting the key 80 price resistance level. 

From a technical perspective this is very bullish. The dollar has now managed to put in a higher low and then blast through long-term resistance.

What does it all mean? It could be that investors see the dollar right now as the least of all the other evils (currencies). 

Considering, however, that gold isn't showing similar strength I read it as a sign of disinflation if not outright deflation. 

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

The Ephemeral Economic Recovery

new home sales.jpg

Dave Rosenberg today discusses the vigor and sustainability of the current recovery:

Never before have new home sales gone on to make a new cycle low after a recession ends — until now. In fact, in practically every other cycle, housing is the first sector to bottom and lead the economy out of the downturn. This time around, it has been the federal government — bailouts and repeated stimulus — and a production bounce as inventories get realigned with a sales environment that may be weak but never went into the abyss. That said, without the traditional credit-sensitive sectors leading the economy into the upturn, as has traditionally been the case, then it is hard to believe we are going to see a sustainable recovery.

These are valid points that the stock market is currently ignoring. I continue to believe this "recovery" is nothing more than an economic "dead cat bounce" amidst a larger "balance sheet recession."

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "Take That, Insurance Companies"


Take That, Insurance Companies (Bokbluster)

Insurance Covers Meds If Your Kid Is Clumsy, But If He's Autistic, He Owes $24,000 (The Consumerist)

Whoops, Social Security Just Went Bust (Business Insider)

Americans Saying 'No' to Toyota After Recalls as Ford Leads Opinion Survey (Bloomberg)

Uh-Oh: Facebook Linked To Rise In Syphilis (Geekologie)

Howie Hubler’s second act: Loan Value Group is a very interesting idea. (Felix)

Who's the BSD buying Google? (Bespoke)

For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Could It Be That Americans "Despise" Wall Street For Good Reason?

I recently started creating a daily links post for the blog again. I read a million headlines every day and figured some folks might find it valuable if I shared the few I thought were the most intriguing - that and I obviously have a rare editorial gift in addition to my gift for editorializing.

In today's links, I highlighted a couple of articles that I found over at Bloomberg in rather ironic fashion. The first headline was, "Rich Clients Pumped for Fees in Private Banking's `Conflict of Interest'." Is it any wonder then that, "Wall Street Despised by Americans in Poll Showing Majority Want Regulation," (the subsequent headline)?

Could it be that Americans despise bankers and brokers BECAUSE they actually FEEL pumped for fees? There is a great deal of financial mistrust out there as evidenced by the fact that people now trust financial blogs more than they trust advisers.

As the Bloomberg article reveals, this mistrust is very well-founded:

Higher fees erode returns over time. A private banking client with $10 million invested, for example, who earns annual returns of 7 percent a year and pays 2.3 percent in fees, will hand $3.4 million to his bankers over the course of a decade. With fees of 0.9 percent, that client would pay $1.3 million...

“Most wealth managers and banks have a stumping conflict of interest because their riskier products earn them more fees,” says Drake, who worked at London-based Kleinwort Benson and Granville Plc for more than 20 years. “If your adviser is getting three times more for hedge funds and private equity than government bonds, you’re asking for trouble.”...

The financial crisis exposed “unsound incentive structures” that reward private bankers for pursuing their employers’ interests rather than those of their clients, wealth management consultants Ole Heggtveit and David Clarksonwrote in a report published in December by Oliver Wyman, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos....

Potential conflicts include encouraging clients to buy higher-margin assets rather than lower-risk alternatives, pushing the bank’s own products and third-party funds that pay commissions to the wealth manager as opposed to those that minimize costs, and promoting frequent trading over buy-and-hold strategies, according to the report titled, “Trust Me, I’m Your Private Banker.”

Bankers, brokers and insurance salespeople regularly do put their own interests ahead of their clients' for one reason: unchecked greed. Most people get into the finance industry to make money. The first thing they realize is the easiest way to do so is to "pump" their clients. The second thing they realize is that there's nothing stopping them. 

"Ninety percent of wealth management clients are not aware of the costs they pay indirectly," the Bloomberg article reports. Clients might suspect or feel like they're getting "pumped" but don't care enough to do anything about it. And regulators can't do anything about it because it's legal.

Sadly, a key part of the financial reform package making its way through congress, forcing brokers and insurance salespeople to accept "fiduciary duty," was dropped by lawmakers. This simple standard would have held brokers accountable for unreasonable fees and gone a long way towards promoting client interests over financial firms' interests.

Let's hope it somehow makes a miracle comeback.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: BFD

In the Spirit of Joe Biden (The Consumerist)

SEC Employees Had Their Hands Full During the Financial Crisis But Not With Enforcement Cases (Gawker)

13 states are suing the federal government claiming the landmark health care overhaul is unconstitutional (OPB)

Rich Clients Pumped for Fees in Private Banking's `Conflict of Interest' (Bloomberg)

Wall Street Despised by Americans in Poll Showing Majority Want Regulation (Bloomberg)

Bend 6th in the nation for 'under water' mortgages (KTVZ)

New home sales drop 2.2% in Feb. to new all-time low (LA Times)

For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Google Now Wants To Be The Next Salomon Brothers


Just after the first of the year Google announced plans to follow in the footsteps of Worldcom and Enron. Shortly afterward the company officially entered the telecom and energy trading businesses. At the time, I argued that this was a poor use of the company's growing cash pile.


Now, it seems, Google is focusing squarely on growing this cash pile in true Salomon Brothers fashion. Clusterstock reports:

Google is hiring traders for its new bond trading platform, according to published advertisements on its job site. Currently, roles include trader of foreign government bonds, portfolio analyst for Google's U.S. government bond portfolio, and a portfolio analyst for agency mortgage-backed securities. All of the roles are at Google's Mountain View facility. A source who interviewed for one of the positions said that this was a means for Google (GOOG) to make use of its large cash reserves. Google has long discussed using its access to massive amounts of data tobuild a hedge fund.

This is a very worrisome trend that the company is following. Expanding into new lines of business that aren't anywhere near the company's core competencies is a sign of managerial hubris that should put shareholders on high alert.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "I Hate Manure"


Anonymous Protester Leaves "Special Deposit" in Chase ATM Vestibule (The Consumerist)

Beware Property Tax Cut Scams In Bend (KTVZ)

The Case for Ending the Mortgage Deduction: Mortgages Should Be Made Less Attractive (NY Times)

The "Death Cross" in Chinese Stocks (Pragmatic Capitalist)

Here's Another Way Mutual Fund Companies Are Robbing You Blind (Business Insider)

Document Shows Toyota Knew Of Camry Acceleration Issues In 2002 (The Consumerist)

Jim Rogers Starts Shorting Stocks (Business Insider)

Patient Billed for Liposuction She Never Had as Medical Identity Theft Rises (Bloomberg)

For links like these in real time, follow me on Twitter

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Monday, March 22, 2010

Wall Street Is Nothing More Than "A Really Elegant Form of Theft"


I'm a big fan of Michael Lewis. "Liar's Poker," his first book on his short career a Salomon, in many ways parallels my own short experience at Bear Stearns. His newest work, "The Big Short," takes us inside the financial collapse and he sat down with 60 Minutes to discuss it.
The first segment of the interview focuses mainly on the causes of the collapse and the few individuals who profited from it. For those interested in a simple explanation of the causes of the collapse this is a must watch:
I was at least as equally intrigued, however by the second segment in which Lewis discusses the ethics of Wall Street pay. Wall Street bankers and brokers don't earn a living, Lewis says, they "finagle" it. Wall Street essentially practices a "really elegant form of theft," he says. Watch the interview for details:

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "Sisyphus Accomplished"


America, here's what you've won (and all of this stuff kicks in this year) (Mother Jones)


Is This the Scariest Chart Of All Time? (Clusterstock)

USAA: The best bank in the US (banksimple)

Great parody video of junior Wall Street analysts (BroBible)

Here's Proof That Your "Diversified" Portfolio Is a Joke (Clusterstock)

For links like these in real time, follow me on Twitter.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

America's Horrible Healthcare ROI

Great chart here from Barry Ritholtz. Not only do we spend twice as much as the average industrialized nation, we have the lowest life expectancy:

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Saturday, March 20, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Health Care and the Potentially Huge Decline Ahead for Stocks


The Worst Insider Buy In History? (Reformed Broker)

Analysts are uniformly uber-bullish (Pragmatic Capitalist)

Sign Up For A Federal Mortgage Assistance And Your Credit Score Drops 100 Points (Clusterstock)

The Ridiculous Lawsuit One Man Filed Against Goldman Sachs For Giving Him Good Advice (Clusterstock)

CNN-Money predicts that Bend will see one of the largest real estate price gains in the US this year (KTVZ)

Stephen Lynch (D-Mass): Why I Wasn't Convinced on Obamacare (Mother Jones)

David Tice Says Potential Stock Market Decline Is 'Huge' (Bloomberg)

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Friday, March 19, 2010

DeMark Indicator Suggests the Stock Market Is Putting In a Top Right Here, Right Now

Back in early March of 2009 I wrote about why I like to use Tom DeMark's Sequential Indicator. At the time, the daily, weekly and monthly charts had lined up suggesting that a stock market bottom was imminent. Stocks literally bottomed within a day or two of that post.

Interestingly, the very same indicators now suggest this rally may have run its course. The daily chart of SPY below shows that since early February we have a completed sell setup (which I fudged just a bit; the 9 on 2/23 is not really valid but I'm using it anyway) and a sequential 13 sell signal completed yesterday:

With this week's trading the weekly chart has also completed both a sell setup and sequential 13 sell signal:


And finally, the monthly chart completed a sell setup back in January that is still in effect:


So through the lens of the DeMark Sequential signal, stocks are at risk of putting in a major top right here, right now.

Disclosure: long SDS

To learn more about DeMark indicators including the Sequential indicator I highly recommend picking up a copy of Tom's book, "New Market Timing Techniques."

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

The Only Two Charts You Need to See to Understand the Current Economy

The first chart (courtesy of Gluskin Sheff) shows that for the first time in a very long time there is literally zero inflation right now:

This is due to the simple fact that we currently have way more capacity to produce goods and services than demand for those same goods and services. 

Demand is way down because people either can't access the funds they need to consume/invest or no longer want to borrow those funds (aka, deleveraging) as shown in the chart below (courtesy of the St. Louis Fed):


The bottom line is there won't be any real recovery in economic activity, let alone the jobs market, until demand picks up. And if consumers are, indeed, focused on deleveraging right now this may take a very long time.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: China's Currency and the Next Real Estate Debacle


Heavyweight match-up: Roach v Krugman on the Yuan (Bloomberg)

Fresh Big Mac Index (Oxymoron?) Shows the Yuan Is Undervalued (The Economist)

Trade Schools of Sharks (The Atlantic)


The honeymoon is officially over for Obama (Bloomberg)

Greenspan: I Like Big Bubbles And I Cannot Lie (LOLFed)

California Housing is Double Dipping (Pragmatic Capitalist)

Is The United States Headed For A Commercial Real Estate Crash Of Unprecedented Magnitude? (The Economic Collapse)

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Proof That Fred Schwed Was Right (70 Years Later)

In the latest issue of The Felder Report, I wrote, "The Wall Street Journal reports that companies like Morgan Stanley Smith Barney paid bonuses to 'top producers' (aka, commission generators) of over ten million dollars or more last year. Undoubtedly, there are many new orders for yachts being placed by brokers in 2010," in a reference to Fred Schwed's classic Wall Street takedown "Where Are the Customer's Yachts?"

Well it seems I was more prescient than even I imagined. Clusterstock reports today that yacht sales are running fully 50% higher than last year:

Brokers must be celebrating not only the huge bonuses they got last year but also the fact that Congress has decided to let them continue to shun fiduciary duty.

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Gunning Down the Bears


The Dow Jones was up today for the eighth trading day in a row. New highs are being hit nearly every day taking the gain over the past year for the S&P 500 to over 75%. 

Simply put, this market is a bear killer (h/t utterlyboring.com).

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

The Rally Narrows

"The trend is your friend" is a famous saying on Wall Street. It's sometimes followed with, "until it comes to an end" and I actually like to look for these turning points. Unlike most traders who are trend-followers, I feel more comfortable with the ends than the trends.

One technical pattern I look for is the ending diagonal (sometimes called a wedge) and on the hourly charts I can see two potential trend-ending patterns. First is the S&P 500:

Clearly the pattern shows a narrowing channel, the definition of an ending diagonal. The other chart, the VIX, shows the inverse:

These charts suggest that the current trend of higher stock prices/lower volatility may be due for a correction.

The 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eek out a gain today. However, in another sign that the rally is narrowing, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index actually declined:

This suggests that at this point in the rally fewer and fewer stocks are propelling the indexes higher.

Ultimately, these are all signs that the strength of this rally is waning and that the trend may not be your friend for much longer.

Disclosure: long SDS and VXX

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Bernie Madoff Gets Chuck Norrised

Tell Bernanke to Pound Sand! (AZRainman)
Bernie Madoff Got Beaten Up In Prison (Business Insider)
Google TV is Coming to a Living Room Near You (Mashable)
Why Financial Plans Are Worthless (NY Times)
Proof That Risk Taking Is Back With A Vengeance (Business Insider)
Senator Corker Says He Made A Specific "Hotel California" Provision In Dodd's New Bill For Goldman Sachs (Clusterstock)
Environmentally Friendly Homes Are Shunned by Lenders (WSJ)
Leading Indicators Have Smallest Gain in Year in Sign of Slower Expansion (Bloomberg)
Chuck Norris trades Repo 105 transactions with the Federal Reserve, except Chuck only pays 104, and his U.S. auditors have signed off on them as true sales. (Bloomberg)
For links in real time follow me on Twitter.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Chris Dodd Will Have His Hands Full With United Jonco International

The Daily Show on the causes of the financial crisis and resulting reform package now being championed by Chris Dodd:

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

A Dark CRE Cloud Hangs Over CACB

Bank of the Cascades finally released their 2009 results this week. The company lost $3.32 per share ($93 million) last year, roughly six times more than the current stock price. Nearly the entire loss can be attributed to its residential construction loans where troubles seem to be moderating somewhat.

Duncan writes today, "if CACB is exposed to commercial real estate loans, their troubles may only be beginning." Well, Dunc, if you consider $675 million in commercial real estate (CRE) loans "exposure" then I guess we can safely assume the company will face continued problems in their loan portfolio:


At 44%, CRE loans make up by far the single largest portion of the company's overall portfolio (and the largest relative weight since at least 2005). Last year CACB charged off only $7.9 million in bad CRE loans and ended the year with a mere $8.9 million reserved for future losses. I guess, CRE has so far been relatively benign for the company.

With such massive holdings, however, should CRE go the way of residential real estate the bank will be devastated. Is it any wonder then, that the feds demanded the company raise $150 million in new capital?

Disclosure: no position

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

U.S. Credit Rating

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

The Other Bill Gross and the Power of Solar Thermal Energy

In the following video Bill Gross (not Pimco's bond king; Idealab's CEO) talks about the fascinating potential of solar thermal energy which is vastly different than photovoltaics, the more popular and prevalent form of solar energy used today. Even if you're not interested solar the video is worth watching simply for the engaging discussion of the engineering and business challenges Gross and eSolar are solving:

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Monday, March 15, 2010

Coffee a Screaming Buy After Daylight Savings Time Begins


On this first Monday morning after springing forward coffee looks like a screaming buy to this trader. I can't be the only one struggling against my internal body clock. Surely the demand for caffeine today is way above average. It looks like it's time to load the boat.

Disclosure: long a large, strong pot of Kona Dark Roast

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Beware the Ides of March

Dave Rosenberg brought up some interesting stock market history in his morning commentary today:

...Many important recent tops have often come in the month of March.

•August 1999 to March 2000 peak — followed by market/internet collapse into October 2002

•September 2001 to March 2002 peak — followed by a 35% decline into October 2002 (interesting that the SPX is trading EXACTLY at that March 2002 peak again)

•March 2003 to March 2004 peak — followed by a 9% decline into the August 2004 low (again, the SPX is trading EXACTLY at that March 2004 peak)

•August 2004 to March 2005 peak — followed by an 8% decline into April 2005 (low for the year)

•March 2009 to March 2010 peak?

Additional trading patterns to watch for (this is from our friend Mary Ann Bartels at Merrill).

•Four-year cycle low scheduled to bottom between July-October 2010

•Years ending in ‘0’ are the most negative of all decennial years (average 6.9% annual loss) with an intra-year correction of 22%

•Mid-term election years since 1930 average a 20% intra-year decline (peaks around March and bottoms around September)

•The prior four mid-term election years ending in ‘0’ (’30, ’50, ’70, ’90) averaged intra-year corrections of 26%

So far this year, the above trading patterns are aligning beautifully. Remember, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes!

It sounds like investors would do well to beware the ides of March.

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Beware Unintended Stock Market Acceleration

Indeed, stocks over the past few weeks have been running like James Sikes' Prius:

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Friday, March 12, 2010

Is Fear About to Make a Comeback?

The VIX, aka "the fear index," looks like it's trying to put in a double bottom here with stocks hitting new highs:


The hourly chart below shows the month-long downtrend now being broken and tested:


With mutual fund managers now "all in" the reintroduction of a little fear in the marketplace would only be a healthy development.

Disclosure: long VXX

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Where Is the Economy's Brakeman?

I know - the winter games are over and, except for the epic gold medal hockey game, already forgotten. Still, the cartoon makes a very good point: we needed a brakeman back during the twin bubbles and we need one again today.

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

The Widening Gap Between Wall Street and Main Street


The gap between Wall Street and Main Street continues to widen. Stocks hit a new bull-market high this morning as a weaker than expected consumer sentiment number was released. Bloomberg reports:

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 72.5 from February’s final reading of 73.6. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the gauge would increase to 74, according to the median estimate...

The index of expectations six months from now, which projects the direction of consumer spending, declined to 67.2, the lowest level since November, from 68.4 last month.

The article attributes the declining sentiment to, "Americans discouraged about the labor market." This chart from the gents at Annaly would support that assertion:

It seems to me that either the stock market is too optimistic or consumers are too pessimistic and it will be interesting to see how this divergence is resolved.

Disclosure: long SDS

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Monday, March 08, 2010

John Hussman: Why It's "Margin of Safety" Time

I couldn't have written it better myself:
A deleveraging cycle is much like a secular bear market in that the market experiences a great deal of volatility, but tends to establish a sequence of troughs, each at lower levels of valuation (even if not at lower absolute prices). In that environment, there is significant risk of abrupt spikes in risk aversion (which implies abrupt price spikes to the downside), so you can't trade with "hot" valuation or market action criteria. It should be no surprise that Graham and Dodd wrote Security Analysis following the post-credit crisis period of the 1920's and 1930's. If there's one lesson from those environments, it is that valuations and the idea of a "margin of safety" takes precedence over all other considerations.

Here's to one mutual fund manager that doesn't think "cash is trash."

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Cash Is Trash Again For Mutual Fund Managers

Tomorrow will mark the 1-year anniversary of the rally that has seen stocks surge over 70%. Evidently, mutual fund managers have decided it's now time to go all-in. Bloomberg reports:
Equity mutual funds are burning through cash at the fastest rate in 18 years, leaving them with the smallest reserves since 2007 in a sign that gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slow.
Cash dropped to 3.6 percent of assets from 5.7 percent in January 2009, leaving managers with $172 billion in the quickest decrease since 1991, Investment Company Institute data show. The last time stock managers held such a small proportion was September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
via bloomberg.com

The last time before that was never (via sentimentrader.com). And a year ago, at the bottom, funds held nearly twice as much cash as they do today. So I think it's safe to say this is a fairly accurate contrarian indicator.

Disclosure: long SDS

Friday, March 05, 2010

Tale of the Tape: Small Caps v Financials

Stocks ripped higher today (through the 1121 level I've been watching) on the better-than-expected jobs report. Small caps led the charge pulling to a new 1-year high:


Financials, in contrast, are still below their highs made over the past few months:


In fact, the XLF is now running right into the downtrend line shown above. Financials have led the market for the past few years and they have been diverging from the new highs made in the major indexes since the beginning of the year.

In addition, the VIX is retesting its January lows signaling complacency reigns over fear once again:


Also notice that the last time RSI (top of the chart) for the VIX fell this low was late October of last year just before stocks corrected roughly 7%.

Bottom line is I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a similar pullback begin relatively soon.

Disclosure: long SDS and VXX

Posted via email from jessefelder's posterous

Okay, Maybe His Track Record Has Something to Do With It

A couple of days ago I posited that the reason Warren Buffett is the most respected CEO in the world is that he never passes the buck. I guess his impressive track record might also have something to do with it:


Many investors can only look on with envy when Warren Buffett says his investors have seen 20% annualized gains over the past 45 years—even the best mutual funds pale by comparison.

Only two funds are even on the horizon: Fidelity Magellan Fund, which has returned 16.3% a year during Mr. Buffett's chairmanship of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and Templeton Growth Fund, up 13.4% a year on average, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc.

Berkshire's Class A shares have delivered returns of 22% a year since 1965, based on market price, though Mr. Buffett prefers to judge gains according to book value, which stand at 20.3%.

Using Berkshire's market-price gains for fairer comparison with mutual funds, $10,000 invested with Mr. Buffett on Oct. 1 1964—equivalent to about $60,000 in today's dollars—would now be worth about $80 million. The same amount in Fidelity's fund would have grown to about $9.1 million, while Templeton Growth investors would now have roughly $2.9 million.

The returns covered the 45 years through the end of 2009. During that period the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 9.3% on an annualized basis—$10,000 would have grown to nearly $560,000. There were 145 mutual funds at the start of 1965.

Posted via web from jessefelder's posterous

Education Matters