Friday, April 30, 2010
The Goldman Case Is More Important Than You Think
Thursday, April 29, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Goldman Sachs Moral Compass
- U.S. Attorney's Office Opens Criminal Probe of Goldman Sachs Trading (WSJ)
- How Goldman offloaded its toxic assets (Felix)
- Can this 'teflon market' overcome the potential head and shoulders pattern? (Kirk Report)
- Big banks may be forced to raise an additional $250 billion in capital under a bill on the U.S. Senate floor today (Bloomberg)
- Equity rally not driven by the usual investors (FT)
- ‘Strategic’ Mortgage Defaults Continue to Grow in Popularity (Bloomberg)
- Jon Stewart Shreds Apple "Appholes" For Ridiculous Gizmodo iPhone Response And Transformation Into "The Man" (Business Insider)
Capitalism on Sabbatical?
Folks, look below at the chart of what the U.S. top marginal tax rate did from 1932 to 1940 (25% to 80%). It shows who paid for the New Deal and there can be little doubt that something similar is going to happen this time around —especially since Obama is running deficits relative to GDP that are double what FDR ever ran to “save the system”....
Believe it or not, at a town hall meeting the President actually said:
“We don't begrudge success fairly earned. I do think at a certain point you've earned enough money.”
Sounds to me as though capitalism is going to be taking something more than just a sabbatical.
Wall Street Search Story: 'Greed Is Good'
The following is a short video on Wall Street I created using YouTube's Search Stories.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Lloyd Dogbert Goes to Congress
- Confusopoly Hearings (Dilbert)
- Bullish Sentiment Hits Highest Levels Since December 2007 (Bespoke)
- Why Should You Be Freaked Out About Greece? Remember, The Great Depression Had Two Parts (Business Insider)
- The Twitter Vigilantes (NY Times)
- 49 Out Of 50 State Economies Are Still in Recession (Business Insider)
- Did you notice the end of ZIRP? (Financial Times)
- TARP Watchdog Says Criminal Charges May Be On the Table For New York Fed Over AIG Coverup (Business Insider)
- DIRTY DOZEN: Things That Could Upset the Apple Cart (Ritholtz)
- Contagion Alert: PIIGS spreads are continuing to widen versus German debt (WSJ)
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Greece, Goldman and the Golden Ratio
- What Goldman Sachs could learn from the rules of golf (Bloomberg)
- Captured Somali Pirates Say They Are Subsidiary of Goldman Sachs (Ritholtz)
- Did Paulson Violate The Fair Credit Reporting Act? (Consumerist)
- Jeremy Grantham is uncomplimentary about his industry (Financial Times)
- Credit Default Swap Spreads Warn Of Upcoming Rout For Financial Stocks (Business Insider)
- Did Porn Cause The Financial Crisis? (Atlantic)
- Portugal risks becoming the new Greece (Bloomberg)
- Failed German Bond Auction: An Evil Portent? (Barron's)
- Seven Reasons Apple Shareholders Should Be Cautious (WSJ)
- Cheaper iPad Knock-offs Thrive in China (Mashable)
- Are Earnings Expectations Too High? (Ritholtz)
- The Revolution Will Not Be Seasonally-Adjusted (Annaly)
- Normal Recovery? Don't Believe It. (Comstock)
- Break it down, Macro Posse (YouTube)
Abacus' Smoking Gun
UPDATE:
Goldman CEO, Lloyd Blankfein says that ACA bought 90% of Abacus and worked with Paulson in creating the product. He also said that it was assumed that all parties involved should have known each others' interest even if it wasn't explicitly disclosed.
However, it is still likely (the details have yet to fully emerge) that Paulson selected ACA for his own interests (they were the most gullible?). It is also possible that ACA, at the time of the creation of Abacus, might have even believed that Paulson intended to take the other 10% of the product rather than subsequently short it, as the SEC complaint alleges.
Still, even if ACA knew of Paulson's interest, IKG, the actual buyer of the remaining 10% of the deal, was not formally informed via the offering documents that Paulson was allowed to influence the creation of Abacus to its buyers' detriment and to his own benefit. And I still believe that this is hardly immaterial.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "If Goldman Sachs Made Cars"
- If Goldman Sachs Made Cars (Editorial Cartoonists)
- I Worked For A Major Mortgage Company, And What We Did Was Criminal (Business Insider)
- A Self-Sustaining Economic Recovery? Not Yet. (Pragmatic Capitalist)
- "Central banking is a great business" - Federal Reserve Made $47.4 Billion in 2009 (NY Times)
- A contrarian makes another call – this time, natural gas (Globe and Mail)
- Shiller: "Mini-bubble" in Stock and Housing Markets (Calculated Risk)
- Michael Douglas Is Ready For The SEC To Wake Up (Dealbreaker)
Sunday, April 18, 2010
"The Felder Report" - April 2010
- The Apple That Defied Sir Newton: The many risks to Apple's lofty stock price.
- A Miracle of Modern Accounting: Inflated bank earnings mean stocks are even more overvalued than the current price-to-earnings ratio suggests.
- Gordon Gekko Changes His Spots: Are baby boomers giving up on greed? If so, long-term treasury bonds will benefit.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Racing to Resistance
- Racing to Resistance (Chart.ly)
- Contrarian Alert: Everybody Hates Treasuries (Barron's)
- "Irrational Equanimity" (FT)
- Geroge Soros Warns Of Biggest Market Crash To Come (Zero Hedge)
- How Wall Street Billionaires Maintain a Lower Tax Rate Then Bus Drivers (Mother Jones)
- If Even the I.R.S. Can't Figure Out the Tax Code How the Hell Are We Supposed To? (NY Times)
- Porsche’s $5,295 Course Teaches Art of Speed; Nerve’s Up to You (Bloomberg)
- Awesome! - "Green Eggs & Hamlet" (Neatorama)
"America's Back!" - Or Is It?
A year ago, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) suspended rule 157, which had previously required banks to mark their assets to market value when preparing balance sheet reports. The basic argument was that fair values were not appropriate because there was "no market" for troubled assets. Certainly, the FASB could have implemented something at least modestly reasonable, such as 2-year or 3-year averaging, but instead, they changed the rules to allow "substantial discretion" in the valuation of bank assets in their financial reports.
Investors are deluding themselves about the solvency of the banking system. People learned in the 1930's that when you don't require the reported value of assets to have a clear and tangible link to the value that the assets would have in liquidation, bad things happen. Yet this is what regulatory and accounting rules are allowing for the banking system at present. While I do believe that bank depositors are safe to the extent of FDIC guarantees, my impression is that the banking system is still quietly insolvent.
Indeed, it's possible that banks might be able to report fairly healthy "operating earnings" to investors, and then somewhat more quietly write off losses as "extraordinary" charges over a period of years. This type of outcome is beginning to look possible, because investors evidently don't mind repeatedly having their pockets picked as long as "operating earnings" come in above analyst estimates.
Unfortunately, in that sort of world, the economy would likely be hobbled for a long period of time, as Japan has discovered over the past couple of decades. With banks focused primarily on survival and recapitalization, retained earnings would be directed to making the existing liabilities whole, rather than contributing to productive new investment.
Life Insurance Venn Diagram
Great graphic here from the New York Times regarding variable life insurance policies. You can hit the link below the image to read the whole article but a napkin drawing like this is worth at least 1,000 words:
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
"Yin Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions"
Over the weekend I posted a video of a presentation Richard Koo recently gave in which he makes the case that the U.S. is "turning Japanese." Below is the slide show that accompanied it. If you're not an economics geek, go ahead and skip to page 26 to the "Yin Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions." It's well worth a close gander.
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: TARP Babies Aren't 'Dependents'
- TARP Babies Aren't 'Dependents' (Editorial Cartoonists)
- Imagine If The Yuan Were Actually An OVER-Valued Bubble (Business Insider)
- What passes for financial journalism (SentimenTrader)
- The Two Huge Reasons Small Businesses Are Disappointed By The Recovery (Business Insider)
- 5 Guys' Secret Recipe (Inc)
- Why Life Insurance Is Not an Investment (NY Times)
- "Even if March 2009 was the ultimate price low of the bear since 2000 it's not likely the ultimate valuation trough" (Hussman)
- Speculators Predict A 20% Collapse In The NASDAQ (Business Insider)
Monday, April 12, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: The Wall Street Bus
- Wall Street Bus (Editorial Cartoonists)
- So How's the Economy Doing, Anyway? (Kevin Drum)
- Bringing Perspective to Current Stock Values (Hulbert)
- Will Banks Earn Anything This Year? (Bloomberg)
- Heavyweight Showdown Over Treasuries: BlackRock v Pimco (Bloomberg)
- State Farm To Toyota: Pay Us Back For Unintended Acceleration Accidents (Consumerist)
- Is Steve Jobs Ignoring History, Or Trying to Rewrite It? (Seeking Alpha)
- ROFL: Steve Ballmer iPad Review (1938 Media)
- Google Developing Tablet to Take on iPad (Mashable)
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Friday, April 09, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Tiger's Back
- Tiger Woods Masters Tournament Score Card (Holy Taco)
- New Tiger Woods Nike Commercial Is Just a Bit Creepy (YouTube)
- Nic Cage's 12k ft2 Bel-Air Foreclosure Auction Finds No Bidders (LA Times)
- 2010 Will See a Sharp Rise in Foreclosures Among the Rich and Famous (WSJ)
- How Far Can Hope Take Us? (Annaly)
- The Economy Got So Bad People Stopped Making Babies (Business Insider)
- Borrowing from our children or investing in them? (Scott Adams)
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Jim Chanos Does His Best Bon Scott Impression
The debate over whether China is in a bubble or not continues today with hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, spitting a mouthful of JD on the fire:
China’s property market is a bubble that may burst by as early as this year, according to hedge fund manager James Chanos.
The world’s third-biggest economy may need to keep up the pace of property investment because up to 60 percent of its gross domestic product relies on construction, said Chanos. The bubble may begin to “run its course” in late-2010 or 2011, he said in an interview on “The Charlie Rose Show” that will air on PBS and Bloomberg TV.
China is “on a treadmill to hell,” said Chanos, who said in January the nation is Dubai times a thousand. “They can’t afford to get off this heroin of property development. It is the only thing keeping the economic growth numbers growing.”
via Bloomberg.com
Jim Chanos, we salute you.
Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Deleveraging Is Back!
In the latest sign of deleveraging, consumer credit resumed its slide last month as the chart above clearly shows. As I've said in these pages many times before, consumers paying down debt and adding to their savings is a good thing for the economy over the long-term but can be very painful in the short-term. Should this recent history of deleveraging become a trend the economy (and inflation) will remain weak for a very long time.
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Welcome to the False Recovery
- Lagging Indicator (Editorial Cartoonists)
- Welcome to the False Recovery (HBR)
- Jobless rate may rise as 'discouraged' workers are drawn back to labor force (Washington Post)
- We've Got This Nagging Feeling That The Pension Problem Is Going To Be A Really Big Deal (Business Insider)
- 'Extreme Makeover' Downsizes Its Dream Homes (WSJ)
- How many of our favorite records have mistakes? (Lefsetz)
- WolframAlpha is Google on steroids (WolframAlpha)
Gordon Gekko Swears Off Speculating. Will the Baby Boomers Follow Suit?
Monday, April 05, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Fire the Fed
- Fire the Fed (AZ Rainman)
- I Saw the Crisis Coming. Why Didn’t the Fed? (NY Times)
- Is the Municipal Market Ground Zero for the Next Crisis? (Bookstaber)
- The Age of Frugality takes a holiday (Reuters)
- Start-Ups, Not Bailouts (Friedman)
- The disrespect out of Washington toward small business owners has officially crossed over into Twilight Zone territory (Reformed Broker)
- Should you sell in April and go away instead of May? (Hulbert)
- Why the Over-Hyped Positive Jobs Report Is Really Much Worse Than the Headline (WSJ)
Sunday, April 04, 2010
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: iPad or iFad?
- Before the iPad, There Was the iWheel (Editorial Cartoonists)
- Stephen Colbert Gets a Free iPad (Comedy Central)
- I'm The Asshole At Starbucks With The iPad (Kotaku)
- Report: 600,000-700,000 iPads sold on Day 1 (SVSJBJ)
- Analyzing the Analyst: Apple's iPad Launch Day Sales Estimated at 600,000-700,000. Is Gene Munster Right? (PCMag.com)
- iPad economics, 'Walled gardens' and the diminishing marginal utility of iPhone and iPad apps (WSJ)
- Does No Flash Mean No StockCharts on the iPad? (StockCharts)
- Yours Truly Making "The Bear Case for Apple" (Seeking Alpha)
The Great Treasury Debate
Friday, April 02, 2010
The Bear Case for Apple
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Jobs Recovery?
- Starting to Make a Dent in the 8.2 Million Jobs Lost During the Recession (Calculated Risk)
- Pay of Hedge Fund Managers Roared Back Last Year (NY Times)
- U.S. Decline, Sloth Look a Lot Like End of Rome (Bloomberg)
- Lessons From Warren Buffett’s Personal Portfolio (Morningstar)
- Dow 12 Month Rate-of-Change Sends Warning Signal For Stocks (Big Picture)
- Is the Government Trying to Prolong the Mortgage Crisis? (WSJ)
- The Lone Star Secret: How Texas avoided the worst of the real estate meltdown (Big Money)
- The Neuroscience of Costco (Frontal Cortex)












