Friday, April 30, 2010

The Goldman Case Is More Important Than You Think

I've been closely focused on the Goldman Sachs drama over the past couple of weeks. Most pundits and other in the financial industry have dismissed the SEC case as a minor bump in the road for the company. Goldman will settle, take its slap on the wrist and move on many assume.

However, as more information comes out about the clear conflicts between the firm and some of its clients I see the story taking on greater significance. As I wrote in the last issue of "The Felder Report," the baby boom generation has now suffered the bursting of the internet and housing bubbles culminating in the worst financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression - all during their peak saving and investing years.

In addition, the Bernie Madoff fraud didn't do much to appeal to investor trust during this economic debacle. Now add the fact that the most prestigious investment house in the world profited enormously during the crisis and, in many cases, directly from its own clients demise. In light of all this, I don't see how this generation doesn't become completely financially misanthropic.

Should the baby boom generation decide they have had enough of risk assets and exposing their nest eggs to the seemingly pervasive problem of fraud on Wall Street of one kind or another we may see massive shift in the investing landscape. Risk assets such as stocks, real estate, commodities, etc. would suffer at he expense of increasing popularity of relative safe havens, i.e. treasuries, certificates of deposit and other cash alternatives.

This is a potential trend that is extremely difficult to quantify but I believe bears careful monitoring as the Feds take Goldman and others to task via legislation and litigation.

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Thursday, April 29, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Goldman Sachs Moral Compass


  • U.S. Attorney's Office Opens Criminal Probe of Goldman Sachs Trading (WSJ)
  • How Goldman offloaded its toxic assets (Felix
  • Can this 'teflon market' overcome the potential head and shoulders pattern? (Kirk Report)
  • Big banks may be forced to raise an additional $250 billion in capital under a bill on the U.S. Senate floor today (Bloomberg)
  • Equity rally not driven by the usual investors (FT
  • ‘Strategic’ Mortgage Defaults Continue to Grow in Popularity (Bloomberg)
  • Jon Stewart Shreds Apple "Appholes" For Ridiculous Gizmodo iPhone Response And Transformation Into "The Man" (Business Insider)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Capitalism on Sabbatical?

Dave Rosenberg today takes a look at the likely future for U.S. personal income tax rates:

Folks, look below at the chart of what the U.S. top marginal tax rate did from 1932 to 1940 (25% to 80%). It shows who paid for the New Deal and there can be little doubt that something similar is going to happen this time around —especially since Obama is running deficits relative to GDP that are double what FDR ever ran to “save the system”.... 
Believe it or not, at a town hall meeting the President actually said: 
“We don't begrudge success fairly earned. I do think at a certain point you've earned enough money.” 
Sounds to me as though capitalism is going to be taking something more than just a sabbatical. 

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Wall Street Search Story: 'Greed Is Good'

The following is a short video on Wall Street I created using YouTube's Search Stories.

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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Lloyd Dogbert Goes to Congress


  • Confusopoly Hearings (Dilbert)
  • Bullish Sentiment Hits Highest Levels Since December 2007 (Bespoke)
  • Why Should You Be Freaked Out About Greece? Remember, The Great Depression Had Two Parts (Business Insider)
  • The Twitter Vigilantes (NY Times)
  • 49 Out Of 50 State Economies Are Still in Recession (Business Insider)
  • Did you notice the end of ZIRP? (Financial Times)
  • TARP Watchdog Says Criminal Charges May Be On the Table For New York Fed Over AIG Coverup (Business Insider)
  • DIRTY DOZEN: Things That Could Upset the Apple Cart (Ritholtz)
  • Contagion Alert: PIIGS spreads are continuing to widen versus German debt (WSJ)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Goldman, Paulson and Abacus in Dry Erase

Paddy Hirsch explains the Abacus deal in layman's terms:

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Stewart On Goldman and Congress' 'Impotent Rage'

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Greece, Goldman and the Golden Ratio


  • What Goldman Sachs could learn from the rules of golf (Bloomberg)
  • Captured Somali Pirates Say They Are Subsidiary of Goldman Sachs (Ritholtz)
  • Did Paulson Violate The Fair Credit Reporting Act? (Consumerist)
  • Jeremy Grantham is uncomplimentary about his industry (Financial Times)
  • Credit Default Swap Spreads Warn Of Upcoming Rout For Financial Stocks (Business Insider)
  • Did Porn Cause The Financial Crisis? (Atlantic)
  • Portugal risks becoming the new Greece (Bloomberg)
  • Failed German Bond Auction: An Evil Portent? (Barron's)
  • Seven Reasons Apple Shareholders Should Be Cautious (WSJ)
  • Cheaper iPad Knock-offs Thrive in China (Mashable)
  • Are Earnings Expectations Too High? (Ritholtz)
  • The Revolution Will Not Be Seasonally-Adjusted (Annaly)
  • Normal Recovery? Don't Believe It. (Comstock)
  • Break it down, Macro Posse (YouTube)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.


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Abacus' Smoking Gun

Maybe I missed this in the news coverage prior to today's testimony by current and former Goldman Sachs executives but 'Fabulous' Fabrice Tourre dropped a bomb in his testimony today. He told the Senate committee that Paulson helped select the so-called "independent" Portfolio Selection Agent (PSA) in creating Abacus.

We have already heard that Paulson was involved in the selection of the securities that went into Abacus. His interest was clearly in seeing the portfolio fail as he intended to take a very large short position against it (which resulted in famous profits during the financial crisis). Goldman has relied on the concept that ultimately ACA, the PSA, had final say over the selection of the securities and thus Paulson's involvement was neutralized by this "independent" third party.

However, if Tourre is correct and Paulson was allowed to influence the selection of the PSA this obliterates the idea that ACA was in any way "independent." Considering Paulson's interest which was known to Tourre and Goldman at the time, he would naturally select a PSA that would be amenable to assisting him in furthering his own interests.

The bottom line is none of this - Paulson's involvement in selecting the PSA and the components of Abacus - was ever disclosed to the buyer of the product (IKG). It seems to me that one can hardly argue that this, the compromised independence of the PSA and the close involvement of Paulson that was clearly contrary to the buyer, is immaterial to the transaction.

As I tweeted earlier today, these guys are making even Somali pirates look good.

UPDATE:
Goldman CEO, Lloyd Blankfein says that ACA bought 90% of Abacus and worked with Paulson in creating the product. He also said that it was assumed that all parties involved should have known each others' interest even if it wasn't explicitly disclosed.

However, it is still likely (the details have yet to fully emerge) that Paulson selected ACA for his own interests (they were the most gullible?). It is also possible that ACA, at the time of the creation of Abacus, might have even believed that Paulson intended to take the other 10% of the product rather than subsequently short it, as the SEC complaint alleges.

Still, even if ACA knew of Paulson's interest, IKG, the actual buyer of the remaining 10% of the deal, was not formally informed via the offering documents that Paulson was allowed to influence the creation of Abacus to its buyers' detriment and to his own benefit. And I still believe that this is hardly immaterial.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "If Goldman Sachs Made Cars"


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Jon Stewart on Goldman Sachs: "These F@#king Guys"

Sunday, April 18, 2010

"The Felder Report" - April 2010

Topics include:
  • The Apple That Defied Sir Newton: The many risks to Apple's lofty stock price.
  • A Miracle of Modern Accounting: Inflated bank earnings mean stocks are even more overvalued than the current price-to-earnings ratio suggests.
  • Gordon Gekko Changes His Spots: Are baby boomers giving up on greed? If so, long-term treasury bonds will benefit.

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Thursday, April 15, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Racing to Resistance


  • Racing to Resistance (Chart.ly)
  • Contrarian Alert: Everybody Hates Treasuries (Barron's)
  • "Irrational Equanimity" (FT)
  • Geroge Soros Warns Of Biggest Market Crash To Come (Zero Hedge)
  • How Wall Street Billionaires Maintain a Lower Tax Rate Then Bus Drivers (Mother Jones)
  • If Even the I.R.S. Can't Figure Out the Tax Code How the Hell Are We Supposed To? (NY Times)
  • Porsche’s $5,295 Course Teaches Art of Speed; Nerve’s Up to You (Bloomberg)
  • Awesome! - "Green Eggs & Hamlet" (Neatorama)
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"America's Back!" - Or Is It?


There has been a lot of buzz lately over the idea that, "America's Back!" Indeed, the economy is growing again, Job growth is recovering, retail sales are doing better... oh, and the banks have fully recovered in miraculous fashion from the financial crisis that nearly brought the world economy to its knees only a year ago.

That is what the chart below would suggest (via paul.kedrosky.com):


In fact, the dramatic rebound in corporate profits is largely due to the recovery in the financial sector. However, in his latest weekly letter John Hussman pokes a rather large hole in the "America's Back" thesis:

A year ago, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) suspended rule 157, which had previously required banks to mark their assets to market value when preparing balance sheet reports. The basic argument was that fair values were not appropriate because there was "no market" for troubled assets. Certainly, the FASB could have implemented something at least modestly reasonable, such as 2-year or 3-year averaging, but instead, they changed the rules to allow "substantial discretion" in the valuation of bank assets in their financial reports.

What is the result of this "substantial discretion"? The answer is soaring bank profits as the very same institutions that were literally insolvent only a year ago simply decline to write down bad loans today. The result of this is improved capital ratios (making them look solvent) and a massive boost in their quarterly earnings results. Hussman believes this will end badly:

Investors are deluding themselves about the solvency of the banking system. People learned in the 1930's that when you don't require the reported value of assets to have a clear and tangible link to the value that the assets would have in liquidation, bad things happen. Yet this is what regulatory and accounting rules are allowing for the banking system at present. While I do believe that bank depositors are safe to the extent of FDIC guarantees, my impression is that the banking system is still quietly insolvent.

And even if the banks survive, the process of rebuilding their balance sheets, regaining solvency, will be a long and painful one:

Indeed, it's possible that banks might be able to report fairly healthy "operating earnings" to investors, and then somewhat more quietly write off losses as "extraordinary" charges over a period of years. This type of outcome is beginning to look possible, because investors evidently don't mind repeatedly having their pockets picked as long as "operating earnings" come in above analyst estimates.

Unfortunately, in that sort of world, the economy would likely be hobbled for a long period of time, as Japan has discovered over the past couple of decades. With banks focused primarily on survival and recapitalization, retained earnings would be directed to making the existing liabilities whole, rather than contributing to productive new investment.

Deleveraging, deleveraging, deleveraging. That is the theme of the current economic cycle and Richard Koo's area of expertise.

So is America really back? Or are the banks just playing a shell game with their earnings and liabilities? I think the latter is more accurate and time will tell how strong the economy really is and its true prospects in the face of the current deleveraging cycle.

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Life Insurance Venn Diagram

Great graphic here from the New York Times regarding variable life insurance policies. You can hit the link below the image to read the whole article but a napkin drawing like this is worth at least 1,000 words:

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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

"Yin Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions"

Over the weekend I posted a video of a presentation Richard Koo recently gave in which he makes the case that the U.S. is "turning Japanese." Below is the slide show that accompanied it. If you're not an economics geek, go ahead and skip to page 26 to the "Yin Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions." It's well worth a close gander.

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I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: TARP Babies Aren't 'Dependents'

  • TARP Babies Aren't 'Dependents' (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • Imagine If The Yuan Were Actually An OVER-Valued Bubble (Business Insider)
  • What passes for financial journalism (SentimenTrader)
  • The Two Huge Reasons Small Businesses Are Disappointed By The Recovery (Business Insider)
  • 5 Guys' Secret Recipe (Inc)
  • Why Life Insurance Is Not an Investment (NY Times)
  • "Even if March 2009 was the ultimate price low of the bear since 2000 it's not likely the ultimate valuation trough" (Hussman)
  • Speculators Predict A 20% Collapse In The NASDAQ (Business Insider)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Monday, April 12, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: The Wall Street Bus


  • Wall Street Bus (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • So How's the Economy Doing, Anyway? (Kevin Drum)
  • Bringing Perspective to Current Stock Values (Hulbert)
  • Will Banks Earn Anything This Year? (Bloomberg)
  • Heavyweight Showdown Over Treasuries: BlackRock v Pimco (Bloomberg)
  • State Farm To Toyota: Pay Us Back For Unintended Acceleration Accidents (Consumerist)
  • Is Steve Jobs Ignoring History, Or Trying to Rewrite It? (Seeking Alpha)
  • ROFL: Steve Ballmer iPad Review (1938 Media)
  • Google Developing Tablet to Take on iPad (Mashable)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Friday, April 09, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Tiger's Back


  • Tiger Woods Masters Tournament Score Card (Holy Taco)
  • New Tiger Woods Nike Commercial Is Just a Bit Creepy (YouTube
  • Nic Cage's 12k ft2 Bel-Air Foreclosure Auction Finds No Bidders (LA Times)
  • 2010 Will See a Sharp Rise in Foreclosures Among the Rich and Famous (WSJ)
  • How Far Can Hope Take Us? (Annaly)
  • The Economy Got So Bad People Stopped Making Babies (Business Insider)
  • Borrowing from our children or investing in them? (Scott Adams)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Thursday, April 08, 2010

Jim Chanos Does His Best Bon Scott Impression


The debate over whether China is in a bubble or not continues today with hedge fund titan, Jim Chanos, spitting a mouthful of JD on the fire:

China’s property market is a bubble that may burst by as early as this year, according to hedge fund manager James Chanos.

The world’s third-biggest economy may need to keep up the pace of property investment because up to 60 percent of its gross domestic product relies on construction, said Chanos. The bubble may begin to “run its course” in late-2010 or 2011, he said in an interview on “The Charlie Rose Show” that will air on PBS and Bloomberg TV.

China is “on a treadmill to hell,” said Chanos, who said in January the nation is Dubai times a thousand. “They can’t afford to get off this heroin of property development. It is the only thing keeping the economic growth numbers growing.”

Jim Chanos, we salute you.

Looks Like My Stock Is On Fire!!

Check the ticker: "JESSE GAINS 30 FRIENDS IN ONE WEEK"!!

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Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Deleveraging Is Back!

In the latest sign of deleveraging, consumer credit resumed its slide last month as the chart above clearly shows. As I've said in these pages many times before, consumers paying down debt and adding to their savings is a good thing for the economy over the long-term but can be very painful in the short-term. Should this recent history of deleveraging become a trend the economy (and inflation) will remain weak for a very long time.

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I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Welcome to the False Recovery


  • Lagging Indicator (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • Welcome to the False Recovery (HBR)
  • Jobless rate may rise as 'discouraged' workers are drawn back to labor force (Washington Post
  • We've Got This Nagging Feeling That The Pension Problem Is Going To Be A Really Big Deal (Business Insider)
  • 'Extreme Makeover' Downsizes Its Dream Homes (WSJ)
  • How many of our favorite records have mistakes? (Lefsetz)
  • WolframAlpha is Google on steroids (WolframAlpha)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Gordon Gekko Swears Off Speculating. Will the Baby Boomers Follow Suit?

Michael Douglas might be a little too old to be considered a baby boomer but that doesn't change the fact that he could very well represent the biggest generation of investors the world has ever seen.
Baby boomers grew up with Douglas as a silver screen hero with Hollywood longevity like few others. Perhaps one of Douglas' most famous roles was financier Gordon Gekko; a role he reprises in the coming sequel to "Wall Street." In real life, however, Douglas is no Gekko. He recently told Esquire magazine he lost nearly half his net worth during the stock market crash of 2008. As a result he's sworn off stocks for good.
I can't help but think that there are many boomers out there feeling just like Douglas. After the internet bubble implosion, the real estate crash of the past few years and the financial crisis, baby boomers must have developed a real aversion to financial securities and investing in general.
Supporting this thesis is the recent mutual fund flow data. Despite the epic stock market rally of the past year or so, fixed income funds have seen the greatest inflows. Still, according to Dave Rosenberg, households have only allocated a bit more than 6% of their investments to fixed income. 25% remains in stocks and fully 30% is still allocated to real estate investments.
However, if even Gordon Gekko has sworn of speculating in risk assets after being burned by three big busts, then I have to believe that there is a large segment of the population that feels the same. And the trend towards fixed income may be only just beginning.
Disclosure: long TLT

Monday, April 05, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Fire the Fed


  • Fire the Fed (AZ Rainman)
  • I Saw the Crisis Coming. Why Didn’t the Fed? (NY Times)
  • Is the Municipal Market Ground Zero for the Next Crisis? (Bookstaber)
  • The Age of Frugality takes a holiday (Reuters
  • Start-Ups, Not Bailouts (Friedman)
  • The disrespect out of Washington toward small business owners has officially crossed over into Twilight Zone territory (Reformed Broker)
  • Should you sell in April and go away instead of May? (Hulbert)
  • Why the Over-Hyped Positive Jobs Report Is Really Much Worse Than the Headline (WSJ)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Sunday, April 04, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: iPad or iFad?


  • Before the iPad, There Was the iWheel (Editorial Cartoonists)
  • Stephen Colbert Gets a Free iPad (Comedy Central)
  • I'm The Asshole At Starbucks With The iPad (Kotaku)
  • Report: 600,000-700,000 iPads sold on Day 1 (SVSJBJ)
  • Analyzing the Analyst: Apple's iPad Launch Day Sales Estimated at 600,000-700,000. Is Gene Munster Right? (PCMag.com)
  • iPad economics, 'Walled gardens' and the diminishing marginal utility of iPhone and iPad apps (WSJ)
  • Does No Flash Mean No StockCharts on the iPad? (StockCharts)
  • Yours Truly Making "The Bear Case for Apple" (Seeking Alpha)
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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The Great Treasury Debate

For those interested in Treasury Bonds this is a much watch debate between two of the brightest minds in the world of finance: Jim Grant (bearish on bonds) and Dave Rosenberg (bullish on bonds).

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Friday, April 02, 2010

The Bear Case for Apple

So investors now believe that Apple is more valuable than GE, Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and JP Morgan. This is evidenced by its market capitalization of over $200 billion. All of these other companies trade at a sub-$200 billion level. However, each on of these other companies earns more in net profits than Apple hence it trades at a higher price-to-earnings multiple:

This begs the question, 'does Apple deserve a premium valuation in comparison to the best consumer, industrial and financial brands in the world?' Based on recent history the answer is no doubt, 'yes.' The iPod followed by the iPhone were both revolutionary products that created tremendous growth at the company even amidst one of the worst recessions in a long time.
However, looking into the future it's hard to imagine Apple's amazing growth being sustained. Apple is now the 4th largest company in the world by market capitalization. The law of large numbers suggests that this fact alone makes it exponentially more difficult for Apple to continue to grow.
Indeed, the iPhone is maturing and new competition from the likes of Google's Android and Chrome operating systems is already eating into the company's flagship product. So what will be the next iPhone-like product to fuel the company's future growth phase?
There is much fanfare surrounding the iPad, the company's latest venture but there are two things that I believe will prevent this product from becoming the second coming of the iPhone. 
First, the iPad is not a totally new product line for the company. To me it seems like it's trying to replace either your iPhone or your laptop (aside from the fanboys, who will buy all three?) In that case, the iPad will probably cannibalize the sales of other Apple products rather than it's competitors' products.
Second, like the iPhone the iPad is a large step further into the world of closed computing where consumers are locked into Apple everything. Consumers want choice and Apple is simply not giving consumers what they want. This also alienates third party developers who typically play a large role in the success of a product like this.
Apple will no doubt continue to be a great consumer technology company but if the iPad does not at least help sustain the amazing growth that the company has seen in the recent path the premium stock market valuation will no longer be justified.
So that's the fundamental case for selling Apple in a nutshell. And it may have something to do with the company's top brass selling 1 million shares (the majority of their actionable holdings) last week.
Looking at the charts, there are also signs that Apple's amazing run may be coming to an end. Divergences on the daily, weekly and monthly charts suggest that the stock price momentum may be faltering at the same time the company's growth may begin to slow:
Looking past the divergences, it's obvious the stock has been on a tear over the past few years. While most tech stocks are lucky to be battling their bubble highs made back in 2000, Apple currently trades six times higher than its 2000 high.
And sentiment has soared right along with the stock. Analysts are uniformly bullish with fully 36 'buy' or 'strong buy' ratings. Individual investors are also nearly as bullish sending a clear contrarian signal.
All in all, there are a lot signals, fundamental, technical, insiders and sentiment, flashing yellow lights here. Put together they may even shine a red light for the stock price.
Disclosure: short AAPL
All the usual disclaimers apply doubly here: this is not a recommendation. It is intended only as food for thought. Individual investors should not sell short at all; leave that to professionals like me who are much better at losing money.


I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Jobs Recovery?


  • Starting to Make a Dent in the 8.2 Million Jobs Lost During the Recession (Calculated Risk)
  • Pay of Hedge Fund Managers Roared Back Last Year (NY Times)
  • U.S. Decline, Sloth Look a Lot Like End of Rome (Bloomberg)
  • Lessons From Warren Buffett’s Personal Portfolio (Morningstar)
  • Dow 12 Month Rate-of-Change Sends Warning Signal For Stocks (Big Picture)
  • Is the Government Trying to Prolong the Mortgage Crisis? (WSJ)
  • The Lone Star Secret: How Texas avoided the worst of the real estate meltdown (Big Money)
  • The Neuroscience of Costco (Frontal Cortex)
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