Thursday, August 26, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Why I'm Buying a Porsche


  • Classic Cars Beat S&P 500 - The Big Picture
  • Stock Market Bulls Are Nearly Extinct - The Big Picture
  • The Case for Economic Optimism - WSJ
  • Investors Might Hate Stocks But They Love Their 2.5% Long Bonds - Bloomberg
  • Scapegoating For-Profit Colleges - WSJ
  • ETFs Are Not Created Equal - Felix
  • Why Working at Home Is Both Awesome and Horrible - The Oatmeal
For links like these in real-time follow me on Twitter.

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Charting a Course For Stocks

So stocks are once again trading back to the all-important 1050 level on the S&P 500, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern everyone and their mom was watching last month.
What's interesting about this test is that another head and shoulders pattern has formed in the meantime - this time inverted (bullish) - and far fewer traders are taking notice:


This chart, along with the growing aversion to equities, has me feeling more bullish right now. 
However, the pennant I've been watching for the past few months has just broken down:
I've been looking to this chart which plots the relative performance of the financials to give some hint at the future direction of stocks for some time
Its recent breakdown makes me a cautious bull. I'll still be watching it over the near term to see if it can pull off a reversal. This and the Dollar Index to see if the rally over the past couple of weeks is for real (which would be bearish).
Because it's do or die right now for both bulls and bears. Break them down below 1050 or hold it and reverse higher. What happens right here right now lays the groundwork for the rest of the trading year.

Disclosure: Long FAS

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

'The Bigger They Come...'


The Bulletin tells us today that "Bend Leads the Nation in Home [Price] Depreciation." I add the word "price" because I believe there is a very marked difference between price and value. Prices, after getting way ahead of true value, are now depreciating even though the value of the real estate may not be.

Values obviously did not climb nearly as fast as prices did during the boom. Because the regional population is still growing, however, it is very possible that true values are still climbing. Prices are another story: the chart above represents just how far prices have come since topping out in 2006. The Bulletin reports:

Housing values in Bend have dropped at a higher rate than in any other metropolitan area in the nation during the past year, according to real estate website Zillow.com.

Bend's median home price fell by 21.8 percent, to $167,500, from the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter this year. Values have dropped 52.5 percent in Bend since the peak of the market in mid-2006, when the median price was $354,000, according to Seattle-based Zillow.

This begs the question, 'have prices and true value approached some sort of parity yet?' Well, according to IHS Global Insight who maintains the most thorough database I've found (and who dubbed Bend the most overvalued market in the nation at the top of the real estate bubble), as of the end of last year, Bend's home prices were still 2.3% overvalued. That's close enough to fair value for me.

That's not to say that this is "the bottom," though. Prices can and usually do decline well below fair value after a bubble bursts. Still, we've come a long way in working off the massive excess in local home prices and current buyers can feel good knowing that they are no longer paying a premium above fair value.

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Saturday, August 07, 2010

Porsche Wins Pikes Peak Hillclimb

This is an awesome, in-car video of Porsche driver Jeff Zwart's winning Pike's Peak run. It's amazing how calm and steady this guy is. I'd be all over the road:

via youtube.com
(Hat tip, B)

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Friday, August 06, 2010

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Business Name FAIL


  • Business Name FAIL - FAIL Blog
  • Is This A Blip, Or Is Stock Ownership On A Permanent Decline? - Business Insider
  • Individual Investors Are Still Behaving Badly - NY Times
  • Oregon shuts down 7-year old's lemonade stand in the name of public safety (your tax dollars, hard at work) - Business Insider
  • Is Big Blue Flashing a Bond Warning? - WSJ
  • Deleveraging chronicles: consumer credit declines in June. - Calculated Risk
  • WedLock: The World's First Divorce Insurance Product - NY Times
For links like these in real time follow me on Twitter.

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Uh Oh: Jobs Are Already Double-Dipping

And to think that this is a 'lagging indicator'...

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Thursday, August 05, 2010

Tim Geithner Must Believe We Are Turning Japanese

Why else would he continue to issue massive amounts of short-term debt when long-term rates are so low? Common sense would suggest that the Treasury should issue long-term debt today to lock-in the current 2-3% rates on long-term treasuries for the next decade or two...

...unless Tim thinks the economy will remain weak for quite some time possibly sending rates even lower, ala Japan. From the Wall Street Journal:

Two years ago, heavy short-term debt issuance drove the average maturity of outstanding U.S. Treasurys to a 26-year low of 49 months. As stimulus and bailout spending has rolled off, so too has the need for short-term cash, sending the average maturity back to 58 months. The Treasury expects it to extend further, minutes of Tuesday's Borrowing Advisory Committee meeting show, but at "a slower pace."

That's unfortunate. While Treasury's debt-management office can't control how much it has to borrow, it can control how the debt is financed. Dire budgetary forecasts driven by huge Medicare and Social Security commitments mean fiscal concerns won't soon recede. The risk is that, when huge slugs of debt must be rolled over, bond vigilantes one day gain the upper hand, increasing borrowing costs.

This could happen sooner rather than later. FTN Financial estimates that, excluding short-term bills, $1.2 trillion of debt will have to be rolled in 2012. That would be a record, and nearly double last year's amount. Pushing out debt maturities would reduce supply that will have to come to market in the next few years.

The borrowing committee still recommends the Treasury increase the average maturity, but given progress thus far, some members say that, now that borrowing requirements are falling from their peaks, it makes sense to reduce issuance across the curve.

This could prove clever. Continued weakness could push rates even lower. After all, yields on Japan's 10-year government bonds dropped below 1% this week, the lowest in seven years. Yields on similar Treasuries have dropped back below 3%, but nearly touched 2% during the depths of the crisis. So they could go lower. And if bond vigilantes haven't yet hit Japan, despite its debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio approaching 200%, they are arguably a way off attacking the U.S., with a ratio of 60%.

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, recently suggested as much writing in a recent research paper, "the U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history." But, as Alan Greenspan taught us over the past couple decades, 'talk is cheap,' especially when it comes to Fed heads.

The fact that the Treasury is committed to the shorter end of the yield curve means the feds are actually putting their money where there mouths are. And surely this means they are taking the warnings of Richard Koo very seriously at this point in time.

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Wednesday, August 04, 2010

How Mariano Rivera Makes the Best Hitters in the World Look Silly

This is a fascinating video analysis of Mariano Rivera's dominance on the mound. Basically, his fast ball and cutter look nearly identical to a hitter but have drastically different flight. This makes it purely a guessing game from the batter's box.

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I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Traffic Cops Return to Wall Street

  • Traffic Cops Return to Wall Street - Horsey (Hat tip, Reformed Broker)
  • Copper/Gold Ratio Predicts Higher Stock Prices - Trader's Narrative
  • Big Investors Fear Deflation - WSJ
  • 6 Gurus Who Told You That Selling Your Treasuries Was A GREAT Idea - Business Insider
  • Foreclosed On By The Fed  - LOLFED
  • Android Smartphones Outsell iPhone in First Half of 2010 - Mashable
  • The Latest Crazy Trend In Parents Spoiling Their Kids: Buy Them Companies - Business Insider
For links like these in real-time, follow me on twitter.

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Tuesday, August 03, 2010

A Confidence Game

Most of the criticism I receive regarding my blog posts is directed at my market view or, more specifically, my hedging of that view. I understand that some people just don't like the fact that I regularly equivocate when I discuss the markets in these pages.

There are few things I hold an unequivocal opinion about: mainly ethical issues and values. Outside of those, however, my mind explores possibilities. In that, I am more Emerson than Fleckenstein:

There will be an agreement in whatever variety of actions, so they be each honest and natural in their hour.  For of one will, the actions will be harmonious, however unlike they seem.  These varieties are lost sight of at a little distance, at a little height of thought.  One tendency unites them all.  The voyage of the best ship is a zigzag line of a hundred tacks.  See the line from a sufficient distance, and it straightens itself to the average tendency.

It may seem that my opinion of the markets fluctuates with the ticks and, to a certain degree, it certainly does. The possibilities are ever-changing. However, my broader view and ultimate goal is steady even if not entirely certain.

There is no certainty in the markets just as there is no certainty in life. Everything is possible. As the Queen tells Alice in Through the Looking Glass, "why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." A practice I believe investors ought to adopt.

In my opinion, 100% confidence is foolish. And if you can't come to terms with uncertainty you shouldn't be playing the game.

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Monday, August 02, 2010

On Greenbacks and Tea Leaves


The chart above is a long-term view of the Dollar Index. The rallies and selloffs over the past few years look much smaller than all the buzz would have you believe. In fact, rather than major bull and bear trends all we've seen over the past four years or so is the formation of another pennant pattern.
As I've written before, the pennant is a continuation pattern that, in this case, suggests the Dollar Index should eventually trade below the low set in early 2008. What's more, the dollar index and stocks have had a pretty close inverse relationship of late.


Should the dollar weaken further and breakdown out of it's pennant, it's very likely stocks will set new highs for this bull run that began March 2009. With the prospect of deflation getting so much attention lately this would be a contrary outcome which, in my estimation, makes it even more likely to occur.
Don't get me wrong, this is not a high-confidence trade; it is merely one possibility, suggested by the charts, that I am entertaining at the moment.